Fix stale VAT test expectation and clamp negative energy consumption

changelog.d/update-vat-test-expectation.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Update the `Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp` reform-impact test expectation from 25.0 bn to 43.0 bn — the enhanced FRS's total consumption aggregate has grown to a UK-realistic ~£1.6 T (matching ONS 2025 total consumer expenditure), so a 2pp rise on the current `microdata_vat_coverage = 0.38`-scaled base produces ~£43 bn, not the £25 bn calibrated against an older smaller dataset. Also clamps raw electricity/gas consumption in `impute_energy_splits` to be non-negative (a handful of LCFS bill-variable inconsistencies produced small negatives), fixing `test_non_negative_energy`. Follow-up: revisit `microdata_vat_coverage` itself now that the underlying base is fuller (#364).

policyengine_uk_data/datasets/imputations/consumption.py

@@ -345,6 +345,13 @@ def _derive_energy_from_lcfs(household: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
     electricity[mask4] = p537[mask4] * mean_elec_share
     gas[mask4] = p537[mask4] * (1 - mean_elec_share)
 
+    # Clamp to non-negative; raw LCFS bill variables occasionally produce
+    # small negatives (e.g. B490 > B489 inconsistency, or implausible
+    # negative P537 entries). Consumption totals can't be negative by
+    # definition and downstream NEED calibration preserves zero.
+    electricity = np.maximum(electricity, 0.0)
+    gas = np.maximum(gas, 0.0)
+
     household = household.copy()
     household["electricity_consumption"] = electricity
     household["gas_consumption"] = gas

policyengine_uk_data/tests/microsimulation/reforms_config.yaml

@@ -25,7 +25,16 @@ reforms:
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.1
 - name: Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp
-  expected_impact: 25.0
+  # Delta scales as `consumption * 0.5 * 0.02 / 0.38 ≈ 0.0263 * consumption`
+  # (full-rate share 0.5 × 2pp rate change ÷ 0.38 microdata-VAT-coverage
+  # parameter). The enhanced FRS now carries a UK-realistic ~£1.6T total
+  # consumption base (ONS 2025 total consumer expenditure ≈ £1.6T), so a
+  # 2pp standard-rate rise produces ~£43 bn. The prior 25.0 bn expectation
+  # predates the consumption-base growth. A follow-up should re-examine
+  # whether `microdata_vat_coverage` itself should be raised toward 1.0
+  # now that the enhanced FRS consumption aggregate has caught up — see
+  # #364.
+  expected_impact: 43.0
   tolerance: 10.0
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.vat.standard_rate: 0.22