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Add fine AGI bracket targets and calibration improvements#695

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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits intomainfrom
fine-agi-brackets
Apr 7, 2026
Merged

Add fine AGI bracket targets and calibration improvements#695
MaxGhenis merged 2 commits intomainfrom
fine-agi-brackets

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@baogorek
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@baogorek baogorek commented Apr 6, 2026

Summary

  • Add fine AGI bracket targets from IRS SOI data to improve high-income weight distribution:
    • State-level: stubs 9/10 from in55cmcsv ($500K–$1M, $1M+) — person count and AGI
    • National: Table 1.4 fine brackets ($500K–$10M+, 6 bins) — tax unit count and AGI
  • Re-enable income_tax_positive in target_config — previously excluded at 22% error, but without it US.h5 overshoots to 54%. The AGI brackets should further reduce the error.
  • Add net_worth ($160T, Federal Reserve SCF) — already in DB ETL, just not wired into config
  • Add district-level SNAP household counts (ACS S2201) — complements existing state SNAP dollars and national CBO target
  • Fix test_immigration_status_diversity — use weighted counts via MicroSeries groupby instead of unweighted np.unique record counts

Motivation

Report card comparison shows enhanced_cps_2024.h5 outperforming US.h5 on income tax (10.6% vs 54.3%), tips (0.1% vs 37.5%), real estate taxes (1.6% vs 52.6%), and rent (1.2% vs 50.2%). The fine AGI brackets constrain the high-income weight distribution, which should reduce cascading errors in income tax and self-employment income.

Test plan

  • Full pipeline rebuild with updated DB and target_config
  • Compare report card before/after for income_tax, self_employment_income, and poverty_rate
  • Verify fine AGI bracket strata are created correctly in policy_data.db
  • Integration test passes with weighted immigration status check

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

baogorek and others added 2 commits April 6, 2026 19:24
- ETL: Add state-level fine AGI stubs 9/10 (in55cmcsv) and national
  Table 1.4 fine brackets ($500K-$10M+) to etl_irs_soi.py
- Config: Enable fine AGI brackets at state and national levels,
  re-enable income_tax_positive (22% error beats 54% unconstrained),
  add net_worth ($160T Fed Reserve SCF), add district-level SNAP
  household counts (ACS S2201)
- Test: Fix test_immigration_status_diversity to use weighted counts
  instead of unweighted np.unique record counts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review April 7, 2026 13:27
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis left a comment

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Looks good after the state AGI overlap fix.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit ac4db66 into main Apr 7, 2026
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2 participants